In the critically acclaimed series Breaking Bad, a mild-mannered chemistry teacher responds to a terminal cancer diagnosis by manufacturing illicit drugs to secure his family's financial future. The title, slang for "starting to do bad things," has become synonymous with a radical shift in a person's life perspective. New research suggests that this dramatic effect is a documented phenomenon among real-world patients.
According to a study published in the American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, receiving a cancer diagnosis significantly increases the likelihood of a criminal conviction for several years thereafter, regardless of an individual's prior history. Unlike the high-stakes villainy of television, however, the study found that these real-life offenses are more frequently minor crimes, such as theft or drug possession.
The Five-Year Crime Surge
A research team from Tilburg University in the Netherlands analyzed a massive dataset integrating administrative records from Denmark between 1980 and 2018. The study tracked 368,317 individuals, comparing the health and criminal records of cancer patients against a healthy control group.
The findings revealed that criminal tendencies do not emerge immediately. During the first year of diagnosis, patients typically show no increase in criminal activity. Researchers explained that this is a reasonable result, as patients are often undergoing intensive treatments such as radiation or chemotherapy, which are physically demanding and require extended hospital stays.
However, the trend shifts dramatically two years post-diagnosis. The likelihood of a conviction begins to climb above pre-cancer levels, peaking five years after the initial diagnosis and remaining elevated for the following five years. Overall, cancer patients were found to have a 14% higher probability of being convicted than their healthy counterparts.
Financial Desperation and the Waning Deterrent of Prison
The researchers identified economic strain as a primary driver for this behavioral shift. The study noted that the employment rate for patients drops by 1.5 percentage points in the year of diagnosis, and even those who remain employed often face reduced working hours and lower total income. This financial instability strongly correlates with a spike in property and economic crimes.
Surprisingly, researchers also observed a significant rise in non-economic crimes, including violence. "This seems to be because the possibility of an early death may weaken the deterrent effect of punishments such as imprisonment," the research team stated. This correlation between cancer and crime was most pronounced in patients whose five-year survival probability decreased sharply in the year they were diagnosed, suggesting that a shortened future may reduce the perceived consequences of criminal acts.
