As Korea is set to enter a super-aging society by 2025, projections indicate that medical expenses for geriatric diseases such as dementia and chronic illnesses will surge. By 2030, the total medical expenses are expected to reach 191 trillion won, posing challenges for the management of the National Health Insurance finances.
According to the report titled 'Estimation and Analysis Study of Health Insurance Medical Expenses by Disease' released earlier this month by the National Health Insurance Corporation's Health Insurance Research Institute, the total medical expenses in Korea have surged approximately fivefold from about 22 trillion won in 2004 to about 110 trillion won in 2023. The report forecasts that by 2030, total medical expenses could rise to as much as 191 trillion won.
As the country transitions into a low birthrate and aging society, the ranking of medical expenses by disease is also changing. The proportion of medical expenses for respiratory diseases, which are more prevalent among younger populations, continues to decline. In contrast, the ranking of medical expenses for circulatory and digestive diseases, which are more common among those aged 65 and older, is on the rise.
It is expected that the ranking of medical expenses for mental illnesses such as depression and cognitive disorders, which are increasing across all generations, as well as neurological diseases like dementia, stroke, and Parkinson's disease, which frequently occur in the elderly, will also rise. The survey results indicate that 'Mental and Behavioral Disorders' will move from 8th place in 2023 to 5th place by 2030, while 'Neurological Diseases' will rise from 11th to 7th place during the same period.
Dementia is particularly a disease that will impose a significant future medical expense burden. According to the research team's findings, medical expenses for dementia increased from 779.6 billion won in 2010 to 3.3373 trillion won in 2023, a rise of about 4.3 times, and it is estimated that by 2030, expenses will expand from 3.7 trillion won to as much as 4.4 trillion won.
The researchers emphasized that "the increase in medical expenses is the result of various factors, including changes in the disease structure due to aging trends and healthcare utilization behaviors," and stated that "to manage health insurance finances, a predictive system reflecting the occurrence and prevalence of diseases beyond a total expenditure management approach must be established."
